Platform: Metaculus
  • 4,679
  • 482,773

Metaculus is a sophisticated forecasting platform established in 2015 that focuses on aggregating predictions about scientific, technological, and social events. Unlike traditional prediction markets, Metaculus emphasizes forecaster calibration and accuracy over monetary gains. The platform uses advanced aggregation algorithms to combine predictions from its community of forecasters, many of whom are experts in their fields.

Metaculus is known for its long-term forecasting tournaments, detailed discussion forums, and comprehensive tracking of forecaster performance. The site provides detailed information to forecasters and a number of tournaments to incentivise deep desearch, advanced AI bots, and new forecasting techniques.

Category Markets Midpoint Brier Relative Score
Culture
8
D-
0.2018
F
+0.051
Economics
16
D-
0.1270
C-
+0.004
Politics
93
D-
0.1453
C-
+0.003
Science
14
D-
0.2446
B
-0.007
Sports
4
F
0.2536
D-
+0.019
Technology
11
D-
0.1880
D+
+0.004
Overall
146
D-
0.1621
D+
0.0055

Charts

Calibration Plot

KalshiManifoldMetaculusPolymarket
0102030405060708090100↑ Resolution0102030405060708090100Prediction (Midpoint) →

Calibration plot from all resolved questions, market probability at midpoint versus average resolution value. n=4,679 markets

Source: brier.fyi

Accuracy Histogram

KalshiManifoldMetaculusPolymarket
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,800↑ Count0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0Midpoint Brier score →

Brier scores from all resolved questions, using probability at market midpoint. Lower scores are better. n=4,679 markets

Source: brier.fyi

Top-Performing Questions

  • Manifold
  • 364
  • 7
  • $3
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.8478
Relative score:
F
+0.151
  • Metaculus
  • 63
  • 9
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.4809
Relative score:
S
-0.128
  • Polymarket
  • 21
  • 723
  • $540,921
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.4225
Relative score:
A
-0.033
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.5837

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityJan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

  • Manifold
  • 256
  • 51
  • $152
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.3574
Relative score:
D-
+0.020
  • Metaculus
  • 8
  • 3
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.3102
Relative score:
S
-0.116
  • Polymarket
  • 159
  • 117
  • $33,679
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.4356
Relative score:
A-
-0.016
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.3678

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

  • Manifold
  • 119
  • 373
  • $7,604
Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.1547
Relative score:
F
+0.090
  • Metaculus
  • 235
  • 172
Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.1183
Relative score:
S
-0.090
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.1365

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOct

Source: brier.fyi

  • Kalshi
  • 166
  • $153,234
Midpoint Brier score:
D
0.0576
Relative score:
B
-0.006
  • Manifold
  • 108
  • 16
  • $275
Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.2288
Relative score:
D
+0.016
  • Metaculus
  • 44
  • 270
Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.2013
Relative score:
A+
-0.069
  • Polymarket
  • 19
  • 3,186
  • $1,360,386
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.3364
Relative score:
F
+0.025
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.2060

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityNov2024DecJan2025FebMarApr

Source: brier.fyi

  • Manifold
  • 270
  • 234
  • $1,305
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.7779
Relative score:
F
+0.060
  • Metaculus
  • 339
  • 128
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.5362
Relative score:
A+
-0.061
  • Polymarket
  • 4
  • 23
  • $15,485
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.5550
Relative score:
D+
+0.007
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.6230

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityFeb2023MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct

Source: brier.fyi

  • Kalshi
  • 143
  • $1,537,259
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.3600
Relative score:
B
-0.006
  • Manifold
  • 608
  • 393
  • $10,894
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.3607
Relative score:
F
+0.058
  • Metaculus
  • 1,162
  • 138
Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.1441
Relative score:
A+
-0.060
  • Polymarket
  • 274
  • 3,544
  • $7,967,498
Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.2401
Relative score:
C+
-0.002
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.2762

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityOct2021Jan2022AprJulOctJan2023AprJulOctJan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

  • Manifold
  • 773
  • 11
  • $9
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.4042
Relative score:
F
+0.054
  • Metaculus
  • 932
  • 177
Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.2103
Relative score:
A+
-0.054
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.3073

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityJul2022OctJan2023AprJulOctJan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

  • Kalshi
  • 44
  • $202,826
Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.2500
Relative score:
D
+0.010
  • Manifold
  • 115
  • 1,329
  • $5,876
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.8281
Relative score:
D
+0.008
  • Metaculus
  • 48
  • 107
Midpoint Brier score:
D
0.0538
Relative score:
A+
-0.048
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.3773

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityApr2024JulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

  • Kalshi
  • 24
  • $769,943
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.5625
Relative score:
A
-0.035
  • Manifold
  • 175
  • 1,104
  • $18,701
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.5404
Relative score:
F
+0.066
  • Metaculus
  • 168
  • 115
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.5843
Relative score:
A+
-0.046
  • Polymarket
  • 181
  • 2,727
  • $3,401,721
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.6889
Relative score:
C+
-0.001
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.5940

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityJul2024AugSepOctNovDec

Source: brier.fyi

  • Manifold
  • 144
  • 78
  • $178
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.3214
Relative score:
F
+0.043
  • Metaculus
  • 181
  • 264
Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.1367
Relative score:
A+
-0.043
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.2291

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityJan2022FebMarAprMayJun

Source: brier.fyi