Metaculus is a sophisticated forecasting platform established in 2015 that focuses on aggregating predictions about scientific, technological, and social events. Unlike traditional prediction markets, Metaculus emphasizes forecaster calibration and accuracy over monetary gains. The platform uses advanced aggregation algorithms to combine predictions from its community of forecasters, many of whom are experts in their fields.
Metaculus is known for its long-term forecasting tournaments, detailed discussion forums, and comprehensive tracking of forecaster performance. The site provides detailed information to forecasters and a number of tournaments to incentivise deep desearch, advanced AI bots, and new forecasting techniques.
Category | Markets | Midpoint Brier | Relative Score | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Culture | 8 | D- | 0.2018 | F | +0.051 |
Economics | 16 | D- | 0.1270 | C- | +0.004 |
Politics | 93 | D- | 0.1453 | C- | +0.003 |
Science | 14 | D- | 0.2446 | B | -0.007 |
Sports | 4 | F | 0.2536 | D- | +0.019 |
Technology | 11 | D- | 0.1880 | D+ | +0.004 |
Overall | 146 | D- | 0.1621 | D+ | 0.0055 |
Calibration plot from all resolved questions, market probability at midpoint versus average resolution value. n=4,679 markets
Source: brier.fyi
Brier scores from all resolved questions, using probability at market midpoint. Lower scores are better. n=4,679 markets
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi