Will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30 at the end of 2023?
  • 376
  • 293
  • $463
A cultured meat product will be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30 at the end of 2023. The resolution is contingent upon a post from Scott Alexander, which is expected to be published on Astral Codex Ten. Market participants are wagering on this event, but their predictions on Metaculus do not impact the official outcome, which will be determined solely by Scott Alexander's judgment. The outcome must meet certain criteria for it to be considered successful: a written post from Scott Alexander indicating that a cultured meat product is available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 377
  • 174
  • $463

46. Will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30 at the end of 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0879
-0.3517
0.9215
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0834
-0.3407
0.9266
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0040
-0.0653
0.9977
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0029
-0.0558
0.9984
Relative Score
A
-0.022
+0.061
+0.025
  • Metaculus
  • 374
  • 119

In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.1865
-0.5654
0.7961
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.1422
-0.4734
0.8554
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0599
-0.2808
0.9512
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0160
-0.1352
0.9897
Relative Score
D
+0.022
-0.061
-0.025
  • Overall
  • 376
  • 293
  • $463
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.1372
-0.4585
0.8588
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.1128
-0.4071
0.8910
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0320
-0.1731
0.9745
7 Days Before Close
A-
0.0095
-0.0955
0.9940

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