Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C+ | 0.0552 | -0.2678 | 0.9560 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0904 | -0.3577 | 0.9187 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0169 | -0.1393 | 0.9890 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B | 0.0169 | -0.1393 | 0.9890 |
| Relative Score | D | +0.021 | -0.058 | -0.025 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C+ | 0.0470 | -0.2444 | 0.9637 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0623 | -0.2871 | 0.9489 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0017 | -0.0424 | 0.9991 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0014 | -0.0379 | 0.9993 |
| Relative Score | A | -0.021 | +0.058 | +0.025 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C+ | 0.0511 | -0.2561 | 0.9598 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0763 | -0.3224 | 0.9338 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0093 | -0.0908 | 0.9940 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0091 | -0.0886 | 0.9941 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.003 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.003 |