Will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset in 2023?
  • 376
  • 382
  • $2,152
An Augmented Reality (AR) headset is a wearable that overlays new visual information on the outside world, allowing users to see through it. To qualify as an AR headset, it must provide new information based on what the user is doing or seeing, and be available for public purchase. The event in question refers to the release of such a headset by one of four companies: Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple, between 2023 and the end of 2023. Resolution criteria include confirmation from Scott Alexander that the product meets the AR definition and is publicly available.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 372
  • 246
  • $2,152

44. Will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset in 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.6244
-1.5614
0.2567
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0853
-0.3455
0.9244
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0152
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0157
0.9999
Relative Score
C-
+0.009
-0.014
-0.014
  • Metaculus
  • 375
  • 136

In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2667
-0.7265
0.6835
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0902
-0.3572
0.9189
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0033
-0.0593
0.9981
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0021
-0.0469
0.9988
Relative Score
B+
-0.009
+0.014
+0.014
  • Overall
  • 376
  • 382
  • $2,152
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4455
-1.1440
0.4701
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0878
-0.3514
0.9216
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0018
-0.0373
0.9990
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0012
-0.0313
0.9994

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