Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2116 | -0.6162 | 0.7612 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.1005 | -0.3813 | 0.9070 |
| 30 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0101 | 0.9999 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0081 | -0.0943 | 0.9951 |
| Relative Score | F | +0.046 | -0.091 | -0.062 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B- | 0.0341 | -0.2041 | 0.9753 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0478 | -0.2467 | 0.9630 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0106 | -0.1084 | 0.9935 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0048 | -0.0722 | 0.9972 |
| Relative Score | A+ | -0.046 | +0.091 | +0.062 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.1228 | -0.4101 | 0.8683 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0742 | -0.3140 | 0.9350 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0053 | -0.0592 | 0.9967 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0065 | -0.0832 | 0.9962 |
| Kalshi | D | +0.022 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.032 |
| Manifold | F | +0.037 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.003 |