Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.9801 | -4.6052 | 0.0101 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0156 | -0.1334 | 0.9900 |
| 30 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0101 | 0.9999 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0101 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | C- | +0.008 | -0.015 | -0.010 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0123 | -0.1177 | 0.9923 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0192 | -0.1492 | 0.9873 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0084 | -0.0963 | 0.9949 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0057 | -0.0787 | 0.9967 |
| Relative Score | B+ | -0.008 | +0.015 | +0.010 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.4962 | -2.3614 | 0.5012 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0174 | -0.1413 | 0.9886 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0043 | -0.0532 | 0.9974 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0029 | -0.0444 | 0.9983 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.000 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
| Kalshi | D | +0.022 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.032 |
| Manifold | F | +0.037 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.003 |