Someone will release "DALL-E, but for videos" in 2023 if a credible person or group announces an AI that can generate at least 10-second long videos from arbitrary prompts. This would involve the AI providing concrete examples of its capabilities. The resolution of this prediction is determined by Scott Alexander's judgment, as outlined in his 2023 prediction contest rules and future posts on Astral Codex Ten. Predictions will only be evaluated for their impact on the track record on Metaculus if they are made on the Metaculus platform. For predictions made elsewhere, the resolution criteria remain tied to Scott Alexander's final judgment.