Will the World Health Organization declare H5N1 a pandemic before January 2025?
  • 225
  • 1,442
  • $1,143,346
This market predicts whether a bird flu pandemic will occur in 2024, with a resolution to "Yes" if the World Health Organization declares H5N1 a pandemic by December 31, 2024. The outcome is determined solely by official WHO declarations, but consensus among credible reporting sources may also be considered. The primary focus of this market is on the specific date and declaration criteria set forth by the WHO. A resolution to "No" would indicate that the WHO has not declared a pandemic by the specified deadline. If the market resolves to "Yes", it implies that the bird flu outbreak will meet the criteria for a declared pandemic by 2024's end.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJun2024JulAugSepOctNovDecJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 225
  • $56,665

New pandemic by 2024? | By Dec 31, 2024

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0049
-0.0726
0.9972
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0064
-0.0833
0.9962
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0025
-0.0513
0.9986
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.000
-0.003
-0.000
  • Polymarket
  • 224
  • 1,442
  • $1,086,681

Bird flu pandemic in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0042
-0.0667
0.9976
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0056
-0.0776
0.9968
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0258
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0111
0.9999
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
+0.003
+0.000
  • Overall
  • 225
  • 1,442
  • $1,143,346
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0045
-0.0696
0.9974
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0060
-0.0805
0.9965
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0016
-0.0386
0.9991
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0106
0.9999

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