Will the CDC identify a new COVID variant of concern before January 2025?
  • 372
  • 53
  • $33,193
The CDC has identified a new COVID variant of concern. The resolution criteria for the market is based on whether the CDC has issued an official announcement identifying the new variant between its original issue date and December 31, 2024. If the CDC has made this announcement within the specified timeframe, the market resolves to Yes. Resolution sources include official CDC websites, where users can verify the outcome and report any issues. The market's resolution will be automatically applied once the original market resolves.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 371
  • $32,900

Will the CDC identify a new variant of concern by December 31, 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0169
-0.1393
0.9890
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0144
-0.1280
0.9908
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0049
-0.0726
0.9972
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
Relative Score
A-
-0.012
+0.038
+0.012
  • Manifold
  • 367
  • 53
  • $293

[Kalshi] Will the CDC identify a new COVID variant of concern by December 31, 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0172
-0.1406
0.9888
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0315
-0.1954
0.9775
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0116
-0.1138
0.9928
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0037
-0.0630
0.9979
Relative Score
D+
+0.012
-0.038
-0.012
  • Overall
  • 372
  • 53
  • $33,193
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0171
-0.1399
0.9889
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0230
-0.1617
0.9842
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0082
-0.0932
0.9950
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0021
-0.0416
0.9988

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