Will there be a confirmed case of monkeypox in the US before September 2024?
  • 16
  • 1,529
  • $1,332,771
A confirmed case of Monkeypox Clade 1 in the United States will resolve to "Yes" if a report is made between August 10 and August 31, 2024. The resolution source will primarily be official government information from the CDC or reputable medical institutions. An outcome will occur at 11:59 PM ET on August 31. In this case, a market may not specify an exact date but rather a timeframe of up to two weeks. The "No" outcome resolves if there is no confirmed case reported during that period.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability17Aug19212325272931

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 17
  • 33
  • $13,488

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by (date)? | …by Aug 31?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0208
-0.1558
0.9861
Time-Weighted Average
B-
0.0384
-0.2180
0.9716
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0124
-0.1179
0.9923
Relative Score
B-
-0.002
+0.007
+0.002
  • Polymarket
  • 17
  • 1,496
  • $1,319,283

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B-
0.0342
-0.2046
0.9752
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0470
-0.2443
0.9638
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0110
-0.1109
0.9932
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.007
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 16
  • 1,529
  • $1,332,771
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0275
-0.1802
0.9806
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0427
-0.2312
0.9677
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0117
-0.1144
0.9927

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