Will the CDC identify a new COVID variant of concern before January 2024?
  • 308
  • 5
  • $43,730
Will the CDC identify a new COVID variant of concern by December 31, 2023? This prediction concerns whether a new VOC has been identified between now and January 1st next year, with a yes outcome indicating confirmation of such an event, based on criteria that include verification by the CDC's official website. The resolution will occur when a trusted user confirms or denies this development. Users can request early resolution if they have access to reliable information, while the market will automatically adopt the result from the original prediction once it is settled.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2023AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan2024

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 308
  • $43,723

Will the CDC identify a new variant of concern by December 31, 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0049
-0.0726
0.9972
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0243
-0.1696
0.9833
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0081
-0.0943
0.9951
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
Relative Score
A-
-0.013
+0.050
+0.010
  • Manifold
  • 63
  • 5
  • $7

[Kalshi] Will the CDC identify a new variant of concern by December 31, 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0556
-0.2690
0.9555
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0301
-0.1906
0.9786
30 Days Before Close
C+
0.0556
-0.2690
0.9555
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0047
-0.0713
0.9973
Relative Score
D+
+0.013
-0.050
-0.010
  • Overall
  • 308
  • 5
  • $43,730
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0303
-0.1708
0.9764
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0272
-0.1801
0.9810
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0319
-0.1817
0.9753
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0026
-0.0458
0.9985

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