Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2420 | -0.6772 | 0.7184 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2558 | -0.7047 | 0.6990 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0025 | -0.0513 | 0.9986 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0181 | 0.9998 |
| Relative Score | D+ | +0.014 | -0.030 | -0.018 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2153 | -0.6237 | 0.7560 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2431 | -0.6793 | 0.7169 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0380 | -0.2170 | 0.9719 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0010 | -0.0326 | 0.9994 |
| Relative Score | A- | -0.014 | +0.030 | +0.018 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2287 | -0.6504 | 0.7372 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2494 | -0.6920 | 0.7079 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0203 | -0.1341 | 0.9852 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0007 | -0.0254 | 0.9996 |
| Kalshi | D | +0.016 |
| Manifold | F | +0.042 |
| Metaculus | A | -0.016 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.038 |
| Kalshi | C- | +0.007 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.008 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.001 |