Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0194 | -0.1500 | 0.9871 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0258 | -0.1753 | 0.9821 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0013 | -0.0368 | 0.9993 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0139 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | B- | -0.004 | +0.016 | +0.003 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B- | 0.0378 | -0.2161 | 0.9721 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B- | 0.0348 | -0.2066 | 0.9747 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0024 | -0.0502 | 0.9987 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0015 | -0.0400 | 0.9992 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.004 | -0.016 | -0.003 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0286 | -0.1831 | 0.9796 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0303 | -0.1909 | 0.9784 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0018 | -0.0435 | 0.9990 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0009 | -0.0270 | 0.9995 |
| Kalshi | D | +0.016 |
| Manifold | F | +0.042 |
| Metaculus | A | -0.016 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.038 |
| Kalshi | C- | +0.007 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.008 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.001 |