Manifold is a prediction market platform launched in 2021 that uses play money (called 'mana') to allow users to create and trade on virtually any topic. The platform's unique feature is its permissionless nature - anyone can create markets about anything, from major world events to personal goals.
In order to provide liquidity on the huge number of markets, the platform uses an automated market maker while also allowing user limit orders and bots. Mana can be earned through the site's numerous social features, such as betting streaks, trader bonuses, and monthly leagues. The site is sustained by users purchasing mana or boosts to drive engagement on their markets.
Category | Markets | Midpoint Brier | Relative Score | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Culture | 30 | D- | 0.2325 | D- | +0.018 |
Economics | 33 | D- | 0.1251 | D | +0.011 |
Politics | 209 | D- | 0.1762 | D+ | +0.005 |
Science | 30 | D- | 0.2010 | D+ | +0.008 |
Sports | 35 | F | 0.4346 | D | +0.013 |
Technology | 27 | F | 0.2884 | D+ | +0.005 |
Overall | 364 | D- | 0.2114 | D+ | 0.0076 |
Calibration plot from all resolved questions, market probability at midpoint versus average resolution value. n=136,565 markets
Source: brier.fyi
Brier scores from all resolved questions, using probability at market midpoint. Lower scores are better. n=136,565 markets
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi
Source: brier.fyi