Platform: Manifold
  • 136,565
  • 2,475,006
  • $175,294,861

Manifold is a prediction market platform launched in 2021 that uses play money (called 'mana') to allow users to create and trade on virtually any topic. The platform's unique feature is its permissionless nature - anyone can create markets about anything, from major world events to personal goals.

In order to provide liquidity on the huge number of markets, the platform uses an automated market maker while also allowing user limit orders and bots. Mana can be earned through the site's numerous social features, such as betting streaks, trader bonuses, and monthly leagues. The site is sustained by users purchasing mana or boosts to drive engagement on their markets.

Category Markets Midpoint Brier Relative Score
Culture
30
D-
0.2325
D-
+0.018
Economics
33
D-
0.1251
D
+0.011
Politics
209
D-
0.1762
D+
+0.005
Science
30
D-
0.2010
D+
+0.008
Sports
35
F
0.4346
D
+0.013
Technology
27
F
0.2884
D+
+0.005
Overall
364
D-
0.2114
D+
0.0076

Charts

Calibration Plot

KalshiManifoldMetaculusPolymarket
0102030405060708090100↑ Resolution0102030405060708090100Prediction (Midpoint) →

Calibration plot from all resolved questions, market probability at midpoint versus average resolution value. n=136,565 markets

Source: brier.fyi

Accuracy Histogram

KalshiManifoldMetaculusPolymarket
05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000↑ Count0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0Midpoint Brier score →

Brier scores from all resolved questions, using probability at market midpoint. Lower scores are better. n=136,565 markets

Source: brier.fyi

Top-Performing Questions

  • Manifold
  • 51
  • 54
  • $14,369
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.5669
Relative score:
S
-0.091
  • Metaculus
  • 2
  • 32
Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.2373
Relative score:
F
+0.027
  • Polymarket
  • 7
  • 521
  • $450,229
Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.1260
Relative score:
F
+0.036
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.3101

Probability History

020406080100↑ Probability27Oct3Nov1017241Dec8

Source: brier.fyi

  • Kalshi
  • 65
  • $15,622
Midpoint Brier score:
C-
0.0223
Relative score:
A-
-0.010
  • Manifold
  • 236
  • 22
  • $2,494
Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.1705
Relative score:
S
-0.085
  • Polymarket
  • 91
  • 156
  • $176,272
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.4290
Relative score:
F
+0.083
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.2073

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

  • Kalshi
  • 377
  • $103,630
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.2809
Relative score:
F
+0.084
  • Manifold
  • 367
  • 8
  • $12
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.6182
Relative score:
S
-0.084
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.4496

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityJul2023OctJan2024Apr

Source: brier.fyi

  • Manifold
  • 396
  • 100
  • $235
Midpoint Brier score:
C
0.0108
Relative score:
S
-0.079
  • Metaculus
  • 2,018
  • 379
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.4623
Relative score:
F
+0.087
  • Polymarket
  • 115
  • 16
  • $8,983
Midpoint Brier score:
B
0.0043
Relative score:
B-
-0.003
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.1591

Probability History

020406080100↑ Probability201920202021202220232024

Source: brier.fyi

  • Manifold
  • 148
  • 28
  • $136
Midpoint Brier score:
D
0.0935
Relative score:
S
-0.077
  • Metaculus
  • 1,067
  • 67
Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.1708
Relative score:
F
+0.077
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.1321

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityOct2021Jan2022AprJulOctJan2023AprJulOctJan2024AprJul

Source: brier.fyi

  • Manifold
  • 319
  • 17
  • $46
Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.1811
Relative score:
S
-0.073
  • Polymarket
  • 270
  • 656
  • $637,554
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.4556
Relative score:
F
+0.073
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.3183

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityFeb2024MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

  • Manifold
  • 371
  • 155
  • $667
Midpoint Brier score:
C-
0.0211
Relative score:
A+
-0.059
  • Metaculus
  • 375
  • 126
Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.2093
Relative score:
F
+0.059
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.1152

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

  • Manifold
  • 151
  • 59
  • $191
Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.1380
Relative score:
A+
-0.056
  • Metaculus
  • 76
  • 1,157
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.2590
Relative score:
F
+0.056
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
D-
0.1985

Probability History

020406080100↑ Probability12Dec19262Jan91623306Feb1320

Source: brier.fyi

  • Manifold
  • 374
  • 187
  • $591
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.2711
Relative score:
A+
-0.053
  • Metaculus
  • 375
  • 85
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.4417
Relative score:
F
+0.053
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.3564

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

  • Manifold
  • 64
  • 17
  • $124
Midpoint Brier score:
D+
0.0413
Relative score:
A+
-0.052
  • Metaculus
  • 939
  • 171
Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.4595
Relative score:
F
+0.052
Overall
Average Midpoint Brier score:
F
0.2504

Probability History

020406080100↑ ProbabilityJan2021AprJulOctJan2022AprJulOctJan2023Apr

Source: brier.fyi