Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0299 | -0.1899 | 0.9788 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0804 | -0.3333 | 0.9299 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B | 0.0167 | -0.1386 | 0.9891 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.003 | +0.009 | -0.011 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.5972 | -1.4818 | 0.2821 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.5462 | -1.3434 | 0.3330 |
| Relative Score | F | +0.554 | -1.431 | -0.642 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B- | 0.0342 | -0.2046 | 0.9752 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0694 | -0.3058 | 0.9416 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0342 | -0.2046 | 0.9752 |
| Relative Score | A- | -0.016 | +0.031 | +0.023 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2204 | -0.6254 | 0.7454 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2320 | -0.6609 | 0.7348 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B | 0.0255 | -0.1716 | 0.9822 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.018 |
| Manifold | D | +0.017 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.002 |