Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0081 | -0.0943 | 0.9951 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0478 | -0.2466 | 0.9631 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0009 | -0.0305 | 0.9995 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0101 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.001 | -0.003 | +0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0196 | -0.1508 | 0.9870 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0531 | -0.2620 | 0.9579 |
| 30 Days Before Close | S | 0.0000 | -0.0050 | 1.0000 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0000 | -0.0020 | 1.0000 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.001 | +0.003 | -0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0139 | -0.1226 | 0.9911 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0504 | -0.2543 | 0.9605 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0177 | 0.9998 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0060 | 1.0000 |
| Kalshi | F | +0.059 |
| Manifold | F | +0.042 |
| Polymarket | A+ | -0.045 |