Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0049 | -0.0726 | 0.9972 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0498 | -0.2524 | 0.9612 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D | 0.2500 | -0.6931 | 0.7071 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0009 | -0.0305 | 0.9995 |
| Relative Score | D | +0.018 | -0.043 | -0.021 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0077 | -0.0916 | 0.9954 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B- | 0.0379 | -0.2165 | 0.9720 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0588 | -0.2777 | 0.9524 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0118 | -0.1148 | 0.9927 |
| Relative Score | A | -0.018 | +0.043 | +0.021 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0063 | -0.0821 | 0.9963 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0438 | -0.2344 | 0.9666 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C- | 0.1544 | -0.4854 | 0.8297 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0063 | -0.0727 | 0.9961 |
| Kalshi | F | +0.059 |
| Manifold | F | +0.042 |
| Polymarket | A+ | -0.045 |