Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.3364 | -0.8675 | 0.5865 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2149 | -0.6228 | 0.7566 |
| Relative Score | S | -0.077 | +0.206 | +0.091 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.7416 | -1.9744 | 0.1592 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.5979 | -1.4839 | 0.2814 |
| Relative Score | F | +0.077 | -0.206 | -0.091 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.5390 | -1.4210 | 0.3728 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.4064 | -1.0534 | 0.5190 |
| Kalshi | B- | -0.004 |
| Manifold | C | +0.004 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |
| Kalshi | D- | +0.025 |
| Manifold | F | +0.044 |
| Polymarket | S | -0.085 |