Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B- | 0.0400 | -0.2231 | 0.9701 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.1628 | -0.5166 | 0.8283 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.6241 | -1.5606 | 0.2569 |
| Relative Score | S | -0.108 | +0.332 | +0.107 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.7783 | -2.1387 | 0.1324 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.7717 | -2.1077 | 0.1370 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.7877 | -2.1849 | 0.1257 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.7946 | -2.2199 | 0.1210 |
| Relative Score | D- | +0.032 | -0.143 | -0.024 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.7396 | -1.9661 | 0.1607 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.5979 | -1.4838 | 0.2814 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.7396 | -1.9661 | 0.1607 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.003 | +0.017 | -0.007 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.5193 | -1.4426 | 0.4211 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.5108 | -1.3694 | 0.4156 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.7877 | -2.1849 | 0.1257 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.7194 | -1.9156 | 0.1795 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.002 |
| Manifold | D- | +0.032 |
| Metaculus | C | +0.003 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.025 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | D+ | +0.013 |
| Polymarket | B+ | -0.009 |
| Kalshi | B+ | -0.009 |
| Manifold | F | +0.055 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.040 |
| Kalshi | A+ | -0.055 |
| Manifold | F | +0.066 |
| Polymarket | B- | -0.003 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | F | +0.040 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.037 |
| Manifold | A- | -0.014 |
| Metaculus | C | +0.004 |
| Polymarket | D+ | +0.012 |