Will Harris flip a 2020 Trump state?
  • 205
  • 1,871
  • $1,644,708
If the Democratic nominee wins any state that Donald Trump won in 2020, the answer is Yes. This question considers only statewide popular vote results and excludes individual congressional district electors from the resolution criteria. The market resolves as soon as all three major news sources (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) have called a state for the Democratic candidate or the official certification confirms the result. States won by Trump in 2020 are considered, but not the specific electoral districts within those states.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMay2024JunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 74
  • $574,484

Will Harris flip a 2020 Trump state?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.1207
-0.4269
0.8827
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0053
-0.0759
0.9969
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0305
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
C
0.1207
-0.4269
0.8827
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.003
+0.000
  • Manifold
  • 72
  • 1,278
  • $5,551

Will Kamala Harris flip a state?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2876
-0.7686
0.6540
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2443
-0.6817
0.7152
30 Days Before Close
D
0.2704
-0.7340
0.6783
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.1568
-0.5041
0.8364
Relative Score
F
+0.040
-0.081
-0.055
  • Polymarket
  • 206
  • 593
  • $1,064,674

Kamala flips a 2020 Trump state?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.1122
-0.4080
0.8931
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.1150
-0.4142
0.8897
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.1634
-0.5178
0.8276
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0827
-0.3390
0.9274
Relative Score
A
-0.037
+0.075
+0.050
  • Overall
  • 205
  • 1,871
  • $1,644,708
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.1735
-0.5345
0.8099
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.1215
-0.3906
0.8673
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.1449
-0.4274
0.8351
7 Days Before Close
C
0.1200
-0.4233
0.8821

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