Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B- | 0.0336 | -0.2024 | 0.9758 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B- | 0.0367 | -0.2126 | 0.9731 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0385 | -0.2183 | 0.9715 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0385 | -0.2183 | 0.9715 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.005 | -0.020 | -0.004 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C+ | 0.0506 | -0.2549 | 0.9603 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0305 | -0.1921 | 0.9783 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0045 | -0.0695 | 0.9974 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0034 | -0.0599 | 0.9981 |
| Relative Score | B | -0.005 | +0.020 | +0.004 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C+ | 0.0421 | -0.2286 | 0.9681 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B- | 0.0336 | -0.2023 | 0.9757 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0215 | -0.1439 | 0.9845 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B | 0.0209 | -0.1391 | 0.9848 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.027 |
| Manifold | F | +0.039 |
| Metaculus | A | -0.026 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.017 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | F | +0.040 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.037 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.008 |
| Manifold | D | +0.016 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |