Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0034 | -0.0604 | 0.9981 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A- | 0.0080 | -0.0936 | 0.9952 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0216 | 0.9998 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0101 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | C- | +0.008 | -0.031 | -0.007 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0263 | -0.1769 | 0.9818 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0148 | -0.1299 | 0.9905 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0215 | 0.9998 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0174 | 0.9998 |
| Relative Score | B | -0.008 | +0.031 | +0.007 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0149 | -0.1186 | 0.9899 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B+ | 0.0114 | -0.1118 | 0.9929 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0216 | 0.9998 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0137 | 0.9999 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.027 |
| Manifold | F | +0.039 |
| Metaculus | A | -0.026 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.017 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.006 |
| Manifold | C | +0.003 |
| Metaculus | C | +0.004 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.002 |