Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2128 | -0.6186 | 0.7596 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.1927 | -0.5780 | 0.7875 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0556 | -0.2690 | 0.9555 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0907 | -0.3583 | 0.9184 |
| Relative Score | A- | -0.013 | +0.028 | +0.018 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2047 | -0.6022 | 0.7709 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2264 | -0.6459 | 0.7404 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D | 0.2051 | -0.6031 | 0.7703 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.1786 | -0.5493 | 0.8069 |
| Relative Score | D+ | +0.013 | -0.028 | -0.018 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2087 | -0.6104 | 0.7653 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2096 | -0.6120 | 0.7640 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C- | 0.1304 | -0.4360 | 0.8629 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C- | 0.1346 | -0.4538 | 0.8627 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.027 |
| Manifold | F | +0.039 |
| Metaculus | A | -0.026 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.017 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | F | +0.040 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.037 |