Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.6897 | -1.7748 | 0.2000 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0840 | -0.3422 | 0.9259 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.7558 | -2.0354 | 0.1486 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.6552 | -1.6578 | 0.2291 |
| Relative Score | A+ | -0.055 | +0.211 | +0.047 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.7950 | -2.2220 | 0.1207 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.7917 | -2.2051 | 0.1230 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.7993 | -2.2448 | 0.1177 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.8172 | -2.3431 | 0.1056 |
| Relative Score | F | +0.066 | -0.288 | -0.051 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.7439 | -1.9841 | 0.1574 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.1297 | -0.4465 | 0.8715 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0146 | 0.9999 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.7140 | -1.8643 | 0.1804 |
| Relative Score | B- | -0.003 | +0.004 | +0.004 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.7429 | -1.9936 | 0.1594 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.3351 | -0.9979 | 0.6401 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.5184 | -1.4316 | 0.4221 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.7288 | -1.9551 | 0.1717 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.004 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.007 |
| Polymarket | B- | -0.003 |
| Kalshi | B- | -0.003 |
| Manifold | C | +0.002 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.003 |
| Manifold | A- | -0.014 |
| Metaculus | C | +0.004 |
| Polymarket | D+ | +0.012 |