A successful vote of no confidence in the Canadian House of Commons before January 2025 could occur if a motion passes between September and December 2024. The outcome depends on whether Justin Trudeau's minority government loses the confidence of Parliament or faces a snap election due to changing polling numbers. If an election is called, even if voting takes place in 2025, it still counts as a successful vote of no confidence for this market. A motion failing to pass the House of Commons during this period does not affect the resolution. Official information from the government and credible reporting will inform the resolution of this market.