Will the Liberal party win the most seats in the 2025 Canadian House of Commons election?
  • 1,046
  • 189
  • $333,475
The Liberal Party, led by Justin Trudeau, has been re-elected with a minority government in recent years. The next federal election is scheduled for October 20, 2025, and will determine which party wins the most seats in the House of Commons. A majority government would result in the Liberals winning the most seats if they receive more than 170 electoral districts out of 338 total districts. If two or more parties are tied, a governing coalition will be formed. The party that wins the most seats will resolve as "Yes", while all other options will resolve as "No".

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityOct2022Jan2023AprJulOctJan2024AprJulOctJan2025Apr

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 213
  • $333,466

Will the Liberal party win the most seats in the 2025 Canadian House of Commons election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.6241
-1.5606
0.2569
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3868
-0.9727
0.5195
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0289
-0.1863
0.9797
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.075
+0.006
  • Manifold
  • 77
  • 25
  • $9

Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election? | Liberal Party

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2934
-0.7802
0.6459
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2453
-0.6837
0.7138
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1631
-0.5173
0.8279
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0593
-0.2789
0.9519
Relative Score
D
+0.022
-0.106
-0.017
  • Metaculus
  • 1,019
  • 164

Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3264
-0.8470
0.6002
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3278
-0.8500
0.5982
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1946
-0.5819
0.7849
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0125
-0.1183
0.9922
Relative Score
A-
-0.011
+0.103
+0.002
  • Overall
  • 1,046
  • 189
  • $333,475
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4146
-1.0626
0.5010
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3200
-0.8355
0.6105
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1289
-0.4285
0.8642
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0239
-0.1358
0.9814

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