Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2549 | -0.7030 | 0.7001 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0016 | -0.0409 | 0.9991 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0202 | 0.9998 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0202 | 0.9998 |
| Relative Score | A | -0.024 | +0.054 | +0.033 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0041 | -0.0663 | 0.9977 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0445 | -0.2369 | 0.9661 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D | 0.2450 | -0.6832 | 0.7141 |
| Relative Score | D | +0.024 | -0.054 | -0.033 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.1295 | -0.3847 | 0.8489 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0231 | -0.1389 | 0.9826 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0202 | 0.9998 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C | 0.1227 | -0.3517 | 0.8570 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.006 |
| Manifold | C | +0.003 |
| Metaculus | C | +0.004 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.002 |
| Manifold | F | +0.151 |
| Metaculus | S | -0.128 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.033 |