Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0169 | -0.1393 | 0.9890 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0193 | -0.1494 | 0.9873 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0015 | -0.0395 | 0.9992 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0016 | -0.0406 | 0.9991 |
| Relative Score | B- | -0.002 | +0.018 | +0.002 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0090 | -0.0998 | 0.9945 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A- | 0.0070 | -0.0874 | 0.9959 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0030 | -0.0566 | 0.9983 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0020 | -0.0460 | 0.9989 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.002 | -0.018 | -0.002 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0130 | -0.1195 | 0.9918 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B+ | 0.0131 | -0.1184 | 0.9916 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0023 | -0.0480 | 0.9988 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0018 | -0.0433 | 0.9990 |
| Manifold | F | +0.151 |
| Metaculus | S | -0.128 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.033 |
| Manifold | B- | -0.003 |
| Metaculus | C | +0.003 |
| Polymarket | C- | +0.005 |