Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?
  • 203
  • 206
  • $223,630
This question resolves as "Yes" if the BBC reports that the Labour Party has won a majority of seats in the House of Commons after the next UK general election that takes place after December 13, 2023. For the purpose of this question all MPs of the Labour and Co-operative Party are considered Labour MPs. The resolution criteria is based solely on the number of seats won by the Labour Party, not any coalition it may be part of.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2024FebMarAprMayJunJul

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 187
  • 12
  • $13

[Metaculus] Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0061
-0.0816
0.9964
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0069
-0.0870
0.9959
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0024
-0.0507
0.9987
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0024
-0.0507
0.9987
Relative Score
B-
-0.003
+0.013
+0.002
  • Metaculus
  • 234
  • 76

Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0144
-0.1276
0.9909
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0121
-0.1165
0.9925
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0011
-0.0336
0.9994
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0021
-0.0471
0.9988
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.011
-0.002
  • Polymarket
  • 66
  • 118
  • $223,617

Labour wins a majority of seats in UK election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0042
-0.0672
0.9976
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0065
-0.0841
0.9962
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0030
-0.0566
0.9983
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0297
0.9995
Relative Score
C-
+0.005
-0.026
-0.004
  • Overall
  • 203
  • 206
  • $223,630
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A-
0.0082
-0.0921
0.9950
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0085
-0.0959
0.9948
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0022
-0.0469
0.9988
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0018
-0.0425
0.9990

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