Will Nigel Farage win election to UK parliament in 2024?
  • 32
  • 217
  • $326,601
Nigel Farage has announced plans to run with Reform UK in the 2024 UK general election scheduled for July 4. Recent polling suggests that he is favored to win the Clacton seat with significant swings expected. The question resolves as "Yes" if Farage is elected as a Member of Parliament and as "No" otherwise, unless the general election is cancelled or postponed beyond July 4. Resolution criteria cite credible media reports from major UK news sources, such as BBC, Times, Financial Times, Guardian, or official announcements by returning officers for any constituency in which Farage is a candidate.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability9Jun162330

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 33
  • 65
  • $264

UK General Election 2024 - Where will Nigel Farage finish in Clacton? | He will win

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0515
-0.2573
0.9596
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0552
-0.2678
0.9560
30 Days Before Close
C
0.1183
-0.4215
0.8857
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0192
-0.1493
0.9873
Relative Score
D+
+0.015
-0.039
-0.015
  • Metaculus
  • 15
  • 38

Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0261
-0.1763
0.9819
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0222
-0.1612
0.9850
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0261
-0.1763
0.9819
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.008
-0.001
  • Polymarket
  • 32
  • 114
  • $326,337

Will Nigel Farage win election to UK parliament?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0289
-0.1863
0.9797
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0239
-0.1680
0.9837
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0812
-0.3355
0.9289
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0049
-0.0726
0.9972
Relative Score
A
-0.018
+0.059
+0.018
  • Overall
  • 32
  • 217
  • $326,601
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B-
0.0355
-0.2066
0.9737
Time-Weighted Average
B-
0.0338
-0.1990
0.9749
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0998
-0.3785
0.9073
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0168
-0.1327
0.9888

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