Will Mark Carney win the Canadian Prime Ministry?
  • 120
  • 1,135
  • $6,646,870
If the first Prime Minister for the 45th Parliament is a member of the Liberal Party, then the outcome is Yes. The resolution criteria is tied to party affiliation rather than specific individual names or candidates. The outcomes are uncertain and depend on who ultimately holds the position. If no Liberal wins, the market resolves to No. The outcome is determined solely by the party's success in securing the Prime Ministerial role, with no consideration for individual candidate names.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityFeb2025MarAprMay

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 205
  • $6,597,235

Will win the Canadian Prime Ministry? | :: Mark Carney

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3923
-0.9843
0.5124
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.3574
-0.9109
0.5581
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0967
-0.3724
0.9115
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0216
-0.1590
0.9855
Relative Score
A
-0.025
+0.145
+0.022
  • Manifold
  • 582
  • 1,135
  • $49,635

Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election? | Mark Carney

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4706
-1.1584
0.4162
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.8375
-2.4669
0.0923
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0910
-0.3590
0.9180
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0221
-0.1608
0.9851
Relative Score
D-
+0.025
-0.145
-0.022
  • Overall
  • 120
  • 1,135
  • $6,646,870
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4314
-1.0713
0.4643
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5975
-1.6889
0.3252
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0938
-0.3657
0.9148
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0218
-0.1599
0.9853

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