Will an early federal election be called in Canada in 2024?
  • 388
  • 3,670
  • $1,863,927
A federal election is scheduled to take place on or before October 20th, 2025. However, several factors could lead to an early call, as has happened in previous elections such as 1997, 2000, and 2008. An early election would be called if the current schedule is broken or if a new government decides to hold a vote earlier than planned. The resolution of this question depends on whether the scheduled election date is met by the end of 2024, with any election in 2024 being considered an early call regardless of when it occurs. If no election is called in 2024, the answer will be negative.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 377
  • 45
  • $73

Canada Politics: Will an early federal election be called in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0226
-0.1631
0.9847
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0659
-0.2968
0.9452
30 Days Before Close
B-
0.0389
-0.2196
0.9711
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0054
-0.0766
0.9968
Relative Score
D+
+0.012
-0.051
-0.009
  • Polymarket
  • 336
  • 3,625
  • $1,863,854

Canada federal election in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0042
-0.0672
0.9976
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0101
-0.1062
0.9938
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0085
1.0000
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0050
1.0000
Relative Score
A-
-0.012
+0.051
+0.009
  • Overall
  • 388
  • 3,670
  • $1,863,927
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0134
-0.1152
0.9911
Time-Weighted Average
B-
0.0380
-0.2015
0.9695
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0195
-0.1141
0.9855
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0027
-0.0408
0.9984

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