Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0032 | -0.0583 | 0.9982 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0024 | -0.0501 | 0.9987 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0221 | 0.9997 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0222 | 0.9997 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.000 | -0.001 | +0.000 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A+ | 0.0008 | -0.0285 | 0.9996 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0020 | -0.0458 | 0.9989 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0171 | 0.9999 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0142 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.000 | +0.001 | -0.000 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0020 | -0.0434 | 0.9989 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0022 | -0.0479 | 0.9988 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0196 | 0.9998 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0182 | 0.9998 |
| Kalshi | B- | -0.004 |
| Manifold | C | +0.004 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.002 |
| Manifold | D+ | +0.012 |
| Polymarket | C- | +0.009 |