Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2521 | -0.6973 | 0.7042 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.1562 | -0.5030 | 0.8371 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0298 | -0.1895 | 0.9789 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0101 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.004 | -0.001 | -0.008 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2567 | -0.7065 | 0.6977 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.1610 | -0.5128 | 0.8308 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0698 | -0.3067 | 0.9412 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0331 | -0.2008 | 0.9761 |
| Relative Score | B- | -0.004 | +0.001 | +0.008 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2544 | -0.7019 | 0.7009 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.1586 | -0.5079 | 0.8339 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0498 | -0.2481 | 0.9601 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B | 0.0166 | -0.1054 | 0.9880 |
| Kalshi | D+ | +0.010 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.008 |
| Metaculus | A+ | -0.048 |
| Manifold | D | +0.023 |
| Metaculus | A | -0.023 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |