Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2809 | -0.7550 | 0.6635 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2426 | -0.6784 | 0.7175 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D | 0.2809 | -0.7550 | 0.6635 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.4576 | -1.1284 | 0.4315 |
| Relative Score | F | +0.037 | -0.077 | -0.051 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.1140 | -0.4120 | 0.8909 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.1625 | -0.5159 | 0.8288 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D | 0.2832 | -0.7596 | 0.6603 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.4851 | -1.1922 | 0.3995 |
| Relative Score | A | -0.037 | +0.077 | +0.051 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.1975 | -0.5835 | 0.7772 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2025 | -0.5972 | 0.7731 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D | 0.2820 | -0.7573 | 0.6619 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.4713 | -1.1603 | 0.4155 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.000 |
| Manifold | C | +0.002 |
| Polymarket | B- | -0.004 |
| Kalshi | A- | -0.011 |
| Manifold | F | +0.037 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |