Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0935 | -0.3648 | 0.9152 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.1033 | -0.3878 | 0.9037 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0935 | -0.3648 | 0.9152 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0499 | -0.2528 | 0.9610 |
| Relative Score | S | -0.077 | +0.159 | +0.103 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D+ | 0.1708 | -0.5331 | 0.8176 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2327 | -0.6585 | 0.7316 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D | 0.2630 | -0.7191 | 0.6888 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D | 0.2356 | -0.6643 | 0.7275 |
| Relative Score | F | +0.077 | -0.159 | -0.103 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.1321 | -0.4490 | 0.8664 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.1680 | -0.5232 | 0.8176 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.1782 | -0.5420 | 0.8020 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C- | 0.1427 | -0.4586 | 0.8443 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
| Manifold | A | -0.021 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.044 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | B+ | -0.010 |
| Metaculus | D+ | +0.012 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.024 |