Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0012 | -0.0356 | 0.9993 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0058 | -0.0794 | 0.9966 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0131 | 0.9999 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0096 | 1.0000 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.002 | -0.004 | -0.002 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0049 | -0.0729 | 0.9972 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0034 | -0.0604 | 0.9981 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0153 | 0.9999 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0151 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.002 | +0.007 | +0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0025 | -0.0513 | 0.9986 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0037 | -0.0630 | 0.9979 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0050 | -0.0736 | 0.9971 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0018 | -0.0429 | 0.9990 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.001 | -0.012 | -0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0029 | -0.0533 | 0.9984 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0043 | -0.0676 | 0.9975 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0018 | -0.0340 | 0.9990 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0007 | -0.0225 | 0.9996 |
| Manifold | B+ | -0.010 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.054 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.017 |