Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0121 | -0.1165 | 0.9924 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0233 | -0.1655 | 0.9842 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0166 | -0.1377 | 0.9893 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0134 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.001 | +0.003 | +0.002 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0090 | -0.0998 | 0.9945 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0251 | -0.1724 | 0.9828 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0210 | -0.1567 | 0.9859 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0151 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.001 | -0.003 | -0.002 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0106 | -0.1082 | 0.9935 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0242 | -0.1689 | 0.9835 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0188 | -0.1472 | 0.9876 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0142 | 0.9999 |
| Manifold | D+ | +0.012 |
| Metaculus | A- | -0.011 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | B+ | -0.010 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.054 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.017 |