Will Elon Musk face public criticism from Donald Trump in 2025?
  • 208
  • 3,410
  • $11,952
President-elect Donald Trump has announced that Elon Musk will serve an advisory role as head of a planned government efficiency department alongside Vivek Ramaswamy. The department is expected to be structured as an advisory commission, governed by the Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA), due to its non-existent status and federal office creation requirements. However, some observers suggest Trump's track record of parting ways with officials he selects in hostile fashion may indicate a possible breakup with Musk. For this question to resolve as Yes before January 1, 2026, credible sources must report both: (1) Elon Musk ceases to serve an advisory role to Donald Trump, and (2) Donald Trump publicly criticizes Elon Musk while Musk is no longer serving in that capacity.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityDec2024Jan2025FebMarAprMayJun

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 209
  • 1,561
  • $11,952

Will Trump publicly disparage Musk within a year of the election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4038
-1.0091
0.4976
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3869
-0.9729
0.5193
30 Days Before Close
F
0.5041
-1.2379
0.3781
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4326
-1.0722
0.4616
Relative Score
F
+0.069
-0.149
-0.089
  • Metaculus
  • 168
  • 1,849

Will Elon Musk cease to be an advisor to Donald Trump and face public criticism from Donald Trump before 2026?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.3365
-0.8676
0.5864
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2774
-0.7480
0.6684
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.1896
-0.5717
0.7918
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.1733
-0.5385
0.8141
Relative Score
A+
-0.069
+0.149
+0.089
  • Overall
  • 208
  • 3,410
  • $11,952
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3701
-0.9384
0.5420
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.3322
-0.8605
0.5939
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.3469
-0.9048
0.5850
7 Days Before Close
D
0.3030
-0.8053
0.6378

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