Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.3574 | -0.9109 | 0.5581 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.4313 | -1.0692 | 0.4632 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.6062 | -1.5076 | 0.2736 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.4205 | -1.0454 | 0.4766 |
| Relative Score | D | +0.020 | -0.036 | -0.028 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.3102 | -0.8141 | 0.6225 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.3059 | -0.8055 | 0.6284 |
| Relative Score | S | -0.116 | +0.246 | +0.150 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.4356 | -1.0788 | 0.4580 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.4019 | -1.0050 | 0.5000 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.6400 | -1.6094 | 0.2425 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.3540 | -0.9039 | 0.5627 |
| Relative Score | A- | -0.016 | +0.026 | +0.023 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.3678 | -0.9346 | 0.5462 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.3797 | -0.9599 | 0.5306 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.6231 | -1.5585 | 0.2580 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.3873 | -0.9747 | 0.5196 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | C | +0.002 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |