Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.3590 | -0.9143 | 0.5560 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2589 | -0.7110 | 0.6945 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.3193 | -0.8325 | 0.6100 |
| Relative Score | F | +0.066 | -0.228 | -0.070 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.9168 | -3.1583 | 0.0443 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.1277 | -0.4422 | 0.8740 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.1190 | -0.4231 | 0.8848 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.1700 | -0.5316 | 0.8186 |
| Relative Score | A+ | -0.066 | +0.228 | +0.070 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.6379 | -2.0363 | 0.3002 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.1933 | -0.5766 | 0.7842 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.1190 | -0.4231 | 0.8848 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D | 0.2446 | -0.6820 | 0.7143 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | F | +0.036 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.032 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.004 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.007 |
| Polymarket | B- | -0.003 |