The question is whether a third-party or independent candidate will receive more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election. The resolution criteria are met if any single non-Democratic candidate achieves this threshold. Historically, third-party candidates have struggled to perform well beyond electoral margins of around 10%. The previous instance of a non-Democrat/Republican receiving over 10% of the national popular vote was in 1992. The question resolves to positive if a single such candidate achieves 5% or more and negative otherwise.