Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.3531 | -0.9019 | 0.5640 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A- | 0.0070 | -0.0872 | 0.9959 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0202 | 0.9998 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.3531 | -0.9019 | 0.5640 |
| Relative Score | B | -0.006 | +0.016 | +0.006 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.3418 | -0.8786 | 0.5792 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.3144 | -0.8227 | 0.6167 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D | 0.2778 | -0.7488 | 0.6678 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D | 0.2115 | -0.6159 | 0.7614 |
| Relative Score | F | +0.038 | -0.079 | -0.053 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.1482 | -0.4861 | 0.8476 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.1620 | -0.5151 | 0.8293 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C- | 0.1482 | -0.4861 | 0.8476 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D | 0.2500 | -0.6931 | 0.7071 |
| Relative Score | A | -0.038 | +0.078 | +0.053 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2810 | -0.7555 | 0.6636 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.1612 | -0.4750 | 0.8139 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C- | 0.1421 | -0.4184 | 0.8384 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D | 0.2715 | -0.7370 | 0.6775 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.019 |
| Manifold | D+ | +0.011 |
| Polymarket | B | -0.005 |
| Kalshi | C- | +0.007 |
| Manifold | C | +0.004 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.016 |