Will Derek Tran (D) win California's 45th congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 250
  • 509
  • $1,704,707
A Democrat will win the House race for CA-45 if the member sworn in for the term beginning in 2025 is a Democrat. The market resolves to "Tran" if Democrat Derek Tran wins the election, and to "Steel" if Republican Michelle Steel wins. If any other candidate wins, the market resolves to 50-50. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, including information from reputable sources such as Race to The White House, The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The market includes competitive US House Races with 217 Republican Party members, 214 Democratic Party members, and 5 vacancies, and will be updated as additional races are added.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 65
  • $1,282,901

Will Democratic win the House race for CA-45? | :: Or another Democrat

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0291
-0.1870
0.9795
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0273
-0.1807
0.9809
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0305
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0042
-0.0672
0.9976
Relative Score
C-
+0.007
-0.029
-0.005
  • Manifold
  • 250
  • 39
  • $4,925

2024 House Races: Which congressional elections will be won by a Republican? [10K Subsidy] | CA-45 Michelle Steel (R) - Lean R | Inverted

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.8042
-2.2709
0.1143
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5557
-1.3681
0.3232
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3773
-0.9526
0.5318
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0054
-0.0763
0.9969
Relative Score
C
+0.004
-0.013
-0.004
  • Polymarket
  • 30
  • 470
  • $416,881

CA-45 election: Tran (D) vs. Steel (R) | Tran

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2880
-0.7693
0.6535
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.1188
-0.4226
0.8850
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0029
-0.0553
0.9984
Relative Score
A
-0.016
+0.052
+0.013
  • Overall
  • 250
  • 509
  • $1,704,707
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3738
-1.0758
0.5824
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2339
-0.6572
0.7297
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.1891
-0.4915
0.7657
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0042
-0.0663
0.9976

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