Will David Valadao (R) win California's 22nd congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 236
  • 178
  • $194,388
This market resolves to "Yes" if the Republican candidate, David Valadao, wins the congressional election in California's 22nd district with any margin. The market considers only competitive seats and will resolve based on credible reporting. If Salas (D) wins, the market resolves to "Salas". If no major party candidate wins, the market will be considered neutral.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 65
  • $15,622

Will Republican win the House race for CA-22? | :: Or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0223
-0.1616
0.9850
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0053
-0.0759
0.9969
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0223
-0.1616
0.9850
Relative Score
A-
-0.010
+0.024
+0.012
  • Manifold
  • 236
  • 22
  • $2,494

2024 House Races: Which congressional elections will be won by a Republican? [10K Subsidy] | CA-22 David Valadao (R) - Won by 3.05%

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.1705
-0.5326
0.8180
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2134
-0.6197
0.7588
30 Days Before Close
D
0.2195
-0.6320
0.7502
7 Days Before Close
D
0.2968
-0.7870
0.6412
Relative Score
S
-0.085
+0.180
+0.112
  • Polymarket
  • 91
  • 156
  • $176,272

CA-22 election: Salas (D) vs. Valadao (R) | Salas | Inverted

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4290
-1.0642
0.4660
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.3582
-0.9126
0.5571
30 Days Before Close
F
0.4356
-1.0788
0.4580
7 Days Before Close
D
0.2256
-0.6444
0.7415
Relative Score
F
+0.083
-0.175
-0.109
  • Overall
  • 236
  • 178
  • $194,388
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2073
-0.5861
0.7563
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.1923
-0.5361
0.7709
30 Days Before Close
D
0.2184
-0.5736
0.7360
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.1816
-0.5310
0.7892

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