Will the WGA writer's strike end before November 2023?
  • 82
  • 90
  • $70,180
The Writers Guild of America (WGA) strike is expected to be resolved by October 31, 2023. If the WGA votes to end the strike by this date and the agreement is subsequently ratified by the membership, the strike will officially end on or before that day. The market resolution is contingent upon a specific sequence of events: approval from the Board and Council, ratification by the membership, and lifting of the restraining order. If these conditions are met, the strike will be considered over, regardless of any potential delays due to pending ratification. If the strike ends before November 2023, this market resolves to Yes.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability9Jul1623306Aug1320273Sep101724

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 83
  • $68,484

Will the WGA vote to end the writers strike by Oct 31? | By Oct 31, 2023

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0841
-0.3425
0.9258
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.1609
-0.5127
0.8309
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.1681
-0.5276
0.8212
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.1936
-0.5798
0.7863
Relative Score
D+
+0.010
-0.019
-0.016
  • Manifold
  • 44
  • 90
  • $1,696

(2500M Subsidy) Will the WGA writer's strike end by Oct 31?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2617
-0.7166
0.6905
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.1479
-0.4854
0.8481
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0990
-0.3778
0.9088
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.3176
-0.8290
0.6123
Relative Score
A-
-0.010
+0.019
+0.016
  • Overall
  • 82
  • 90
  • $70,180
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.1729
-0.5295
0.8081
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.1544
-0.4990
0.8395
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.1335
-0.4527
0.8650
7 Days Before Close
D
0.2556
-0.7044
0.6993

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