On May 14, 2023, Turkish citizens will cast ballots to determine their leader, with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seeking reelection as president. If Erdoğan wins the first round of the election by a clear margin, or if he is declared the winner in the event of a runoff against a potential challenger, this outcome will be confirmed. However, if Erdogan's victory is disputed or if he loses to a strong contender, his re-election hopes may fade. The outcome will be determined through official announcements from the Turkish government and credible reporting sources. If the result is unclear by December 31, 2023, at 11:59 PM ET, the market will default to a 50-50 split.