Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0161 | -0.1358 | 0.9896 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0160 | -0.1354 | 0.9896 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0036 | -0.0620 | 0.9980 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0006 | -0.0240 | 0.9997 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.000 | -0.007 | -0.000 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0116 | 0.9999 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0103 | 0.9999 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0116 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.000 | +0.007 | +0.000 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0081 | -0.0737 | 0.9948 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A- | 0.0081 | -0.0729 | 0.9948 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0036 | -0.0620 | 0.9980 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0178 | 0.9998 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.006 |
| Manifold | D | +0.016 |
| Metaculus | A+ | -0.069 |
| Polymarket | D- | +0.025 |
| Manifold | B | -0.005 |
| Metaculus | D- | +0.031 |
| Polymarket | B | -0.007 |