Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0129 | -0.1205 | 0.9919 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B+ | 0.0131 | -0.1213 | 0.9918 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0116 | -0.1139 | 0.9928 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0059 | -0.0800 | 0.9966 |
| Relative Score | B | -0.005 | +0.016 | +0.005 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C+ | 0.0444 | -0.2365 | 0.9662 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0456 | -0.2402 | 0.9651 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0209 | -0.1563 | 0.9860 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B | 0.0220 | -0.1607 | 0.9851 |
| Relative Score | D- | +0.031 | -0.105 | -0.028 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0056 | -0.0780 | 0.9967 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0057 | -0.0788 | 0.9967 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0020 | -0.0460 | 0.9989 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0110 | -0.1109 | 0.9932 |
| Relative Score | B | -0.007 | +0.040 | +0.004 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0210 | -0.1450 | 0.9849 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0215 | -0.1468 | 0.9845 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0115 | -0.1054 | 0.9926 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0130 | -0.1172 | 0.9916 |
| Manifold | D+ | +0.012 |
| Metaculus | A- | -0.011 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.001 |