Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0037 | -0.0632 | 0.9979 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0035 | -0.0609 | 0.9980 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0037 | -0.0632 | 0.9979 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0037 | -0.0632 | 0.9979 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.001 | -0.000 | +0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0036 | -0.0619 | 0.9980 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0033 | -0.0594 | 0.9981 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0233 | 0.9997 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0007 | -0.0274 | 0.9996 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.001 | +0.000 | -0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0037 | -0.0625 | 0.9979 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0034 | -0.0602 | 0.9981 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0021 | -0.0432 | 0.9988 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0022 | -0.0453 | 0.9987 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.008 |
| Manifold | D | +0.016 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |